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Apr 04 2025
3The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a potential bottom within the next two months as global trade concerns weigh on investor sentiment. According to analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Nansen, there is a 70% probability that digital assets will reach their lowest valuation by June, with ongoing discussions on U.S. import tariffs playing a key role in market movements.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Market Reaction
On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce reciprocal import tariffs aimed at addressing the country's estimated $1.2 trillion trade deficit and bolstering domestic manufacturing. These measures have already sparked turbulence across traditional and digital markets, limiting investor confidence.
Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, highlighted the correlation between tariff negotiations and crypto valuations. "Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June, with BTC and ETH currently trading 15% and 22% below their year-to-date highs, respectively. Given this data, upcoming discussions will serve as crucial market indicators," she told Cointelegraph.
Barthere emphasized that once the most difficult phase of negotiations is over, risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—could see a more defined recovery. "Once the toughest part of the negotiation is behind us, we see a cleaner opportunity for crypto and risk assets to finally mark a bottom," she added.
Market Struggles with Uncertain Momentum
Traditional stock markets and cryptocurrencies have shown little momentum ahead of the U.S. tariff announcement. A recent research report from Nansen pointed out that both major U.S. equity indices and Bitcoin have struggled to break above their 200-day moving averages. Additionally, shorter-term moving averages are trending downward, signaling continued uncertainty.
"Fragile market psychology highlights the necessity of ‘good news,’ mainly regarding U.S. economic growth and tariff policies," the report noted. This sentiment is echoed in the crypto space, where investors remain cautious and are hesitant to take on significant positions until there is more clarity on macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin’s Key Levels and Market Sentiment
Despite the cautious environment, Bitcoin has managed to stay above the "extreme fear" threshold on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index for three consecutive sessions, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment.
Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, described the current market mood as "wait and see." She noted that Bitcoin is consolidating between $82,000 and $85,000 following a period of market recalibration in Q1.
"Bitcoin continues to navigate this zone with key support at $82,000 and upside potential toward $86,500 and $90,000 if broader sentiment stabilizes," Zlatareva explained.
Traders are closely monitoring the $84,500 resistance level as a potential breakout point that could drive further gains. If Bitcoin surpasses this mark, it could indicate renewed bullish momentum despite the prevailing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Future Outlook: Stability Hinges on Global Trade Talks
For now, the cryptocurrency market remains in a state of flux, with investors awaiting key developments in global trade negotiations. The outcome of these discussions could have a significant impact on both traditional financial markets and the digital asset space.
With Bitcoin and Ethereum still well below their yearly highs, analysts suggest that a clearer economic picture could lead to a market bottom by mid-year, paving the way for a potential recovery. Until then, traders and investors will continue monitoring macroeconomic trends and key resistance levels as they navigate
a volatile market landscape.
Source-https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-market-bottom-june-trump-tariffs
This is non-financial/medical advice and made using AI so could be wrong.
