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Jun 19 2025
2Global carbon dioxide emissions are putting the world on track to exhaust the remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C within a little over three years, warns a comprehensive new study published in Earth System Science Data. The study, part of the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report, estimates that the remaining budget stands at 130 billion tons of CO₂ from early 2025—an amount that will be fully spent if emissions continue at their current pace.
According to lead author Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, the findings highlight how climate action is failing to keep up with escalating climate impacts. “Our third annual edition shows that both warming levels and rates of warming are unprecedented,” Forster noted, emphasizing the growing disconnect between climate policy ambitions and real-world emissions trends.
The 2024 report draws on the work of over 60 scientists worldwide and expands its scope to include ten key climate indicators, such as global sea-level rise and land precipitation. This year, the best estimate of global surface temperature rise reached 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, with human activity responsible for 1.36°C of that increase.
While a single-year temperature spike above 1.5°C does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which is based on multi-decade averages, the trend remains deeply concerning. The report underscores that the climate system’s response to sustained high emissions—driven largely by fossil fuel combustion and deforestation—has pushed global warming into uncharted territory.
From 2015 to 2024, global average temperatures were 1.24°C above pre-industrial levels, with 1.22°C attributable to human activity. During this period, annual greenhouse gas emissions reached approximately 53 billion tons of CO₂-equivalent, with international aviation emissions rebounding to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
The continued accumulation of greenhouse gases, coupled with declining emissions of sulfur dioxide—a pollutant that has a temporary cooling effect—has intensified the Earth’s energy imbalance. Surplus heat is building up rapidly across the climate system, driving changes such as ice melt, permafrost thaw, ocean warming, and rising sea levels.
Dr. Karina von Schuckmann of Mercator Ocean International pointed out that around 91% of this excess heat is being absorbed by the ocean, resulting in record-high global sea surface temperatures and escalating marine disruptions. Between 2019 and 2024, global sea levels rose by 26 mm—more than double the long-term average since 1900.
Dr. Aimée Slangen of the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research noted that while the global sea level has risen approximately 228 mm since 1900, this gradual change is already intensifying coastal erosion, worsening storm surge impacts, and threatening both ecosystems and human settlements.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long emphasized that deep and rapid cuts in emissions are essential to staying within the 1.5°C limit. Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London echoed this urgency: “The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing. Every fraction of a degree matters, bringing more severe weather extremes and greater risks to billions.”
Other findings include a human-caused warming rate of about 0.27°C per decade from 2015 to 2024, and a 0.31°C temperature increase compared to the previous decade. Notably, land-based extreme heat has escalated more rapidly, with average maximum land temperatures reaching 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels in the last decade.
The message is clear: only immediate and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will prevent further climate destabilization and ensure a livable future.
Source:https://phys.org/news/2025-06-global-carbon-emissions-track-exhaust.html
This is non-financial/medical advice and made using AI so could be wrong.
