Stronger Pollution Controls Could Avert Thousands of Ozone-Linked Deaths in Southeast Asia by 2050, NTU Study Finds.

A recent study led by scientists at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore suggests that Southeast Asia could prevent as many as 36,000 premature deaths annually by 2050 if comprehensive air pollution control strategies are adopted. The research emphasizes the urgent need for action to mitigate the health impacts of ground-level ozone, a harmful pollutant linked to serious respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.

Ground-level ozone is formed through the reaction of nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight. This pollutant is not directly emitted but develops from vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions, and energy production. Prolonged exposure can worsen chronic health issues such as asthma and heart disease, posing particular risks to the elderly and vulnerable populations.

Utilizing pollution data from global emission inventories and advanced atmospheric modeling, the NTU team analyzed how ozone levels might change under various future pollution scenarios. They then projected associated health impacts by integrating ozone concentration data with epidemiological models, population statistics, and mortality rates.

Under a business-as-usual trajectory—which includes currently planned NOₓ reductions from power plants, vehicles, and industrial activities—the study estimates that annual ozone-related fatalities could drop by 22,000 by 2050. This decline would be most notable in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.

However, the researchers highlight that if Southeast Asian nations adopt stringent emissions controls, the number of avoidable deaths could rise significantly to 36,000 each year. In contrast, a high-emission future—marked by increased fossil fuel consumption—could lead to 33,000 additional deaths annually due to elevated ozone exposure.

The study, published in Environment International, underscores how ozone formation varies across regions. In urban centers such as Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City, ozone levels are influenced by both NOₓ and VOCs. Therefore, reducing both types of pollutants is essential for effective ozone mitigation in cities. In contrast, rural and coastal areas like Kalimantan and the Malacca Strait are more sensitive to NOₓ levels alone, suggesting that NOₓ-specific controls would be more effective in these locations.

NTU’s interdisciplinary team—from the Center for Climate Change and Environmental Health (CCEH), Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), Asian School of the Environment (ASE), and Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine)—calls for targeted policies tailored to regional differences in ozone sensitivity.

Recommended interventions include stricter industrial emission standards, enhanced transportation policies, and measures to control shipping and biomass burning. According to Associate Professor Steve Yim, Director of CCEH and senior author of the study, controlling ozone is complex due to the need to manage its chemical precursors rather than the pollutant itself. He noted that Southeast Asia’s tropical climate also influences ozone behavior differently compared to temperate regions.

“We believe our research addresses a crucial knowledge gap about ozone dynamics in Southeast Asia,” said Assoc Prof Yim. “This deeper understanding can support the creation of more effective air quality policies.”

Co-author Professor Joseph Sung, NTU’s Senior Vice President (Health and Life Sciences) and Dean of LKCMedicine, highlighted the pressing nature of the findings: “Ozone is an invisible yet dangerous pollutant. This study provides strong evidence that immediate action can significantly reduce health risks and enhance air quality across the region.”

With plans to expand their research, the NTU team aims to explore how climate change and land-use changes could further impact ozone pollution. Their work is intended to guide collaboration with governments, industries, and global environmental bodies in shaping sustainable air quality management strategies.

This study aligns with NTU's broader commitment to climate science and global health, offering a scientific foundation for policies that could save thousands of lives in the coming decades.

Source:https://phys.org/news/2025-05-stricter-air-pollution-ozone-early.html

This is non-financial/medical advice and made using AI so could be wrong.